Despite the Indian government’s strong reaffirmation for the regional rotation tradition during its nomination of Tharoor, the candidate himself may not necessarily agree with that practice. 

“I welcome any qualified candidate and hope there will be many more, from Pakistan or anywhere else,” he said ahead of his talks with the Prime Minister, Dr Manmohan Singh and senior external affairs ministry officials…The 50-year-old noted author underlined that each of the candidate, including him, “will have to stand on our own merits and will have to have own credentials, rather than our passports as the principal qualification“.

He also underscored that, as UNSG, this independence of views would continue as part of the daily routine.

“I do not see a particular problem with regard to any national policy that India may pursue at the United Nations because India would do so bearing in mind its own national interest whereas I would be in a position to work for the collective interest of United Nations… If I am elected, I would be accountable to 191 countries, not to any one (country).”

In addition to Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz and UN Ambassador Munir Akram, several reports suggest another possible Pakistani nominee who would bring an important and encouraged factor to the race.

Pakistan is trying to persuade Nafis Sadik…to be its candidate to rival India’s unexpected formal nomination of Tharoor. Sadik is the special adviser to the UN secretary-general as well as the secretary-general’s special envoy for HIV/AIDS in Asia and the Pacific. She is also a member of the secretary-general’s High-Level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change.

Much more discussion has still to take place in Islamabad obviously, but if Sadik is nominated, she would be the first female Asian candidate in the race. She had been identified early on by Equality Now as one of several qualified female leaders that merit consideration.

Readers from India may be interested in watching my interview with Niharika Acharya, cohost of the weekly news program Duniya this Sunday evening, 18 June at 7:00pm in India. 

The long anticipated announcement of Shashi Tharoor’s nomination was made this week, surprising both no one and many, but perhaps none more so that the South Korean, Sri Lankan and Thai governments, which had strongly wagered on India’s support.

Tharoor’s eloquence, pleasant nature and cosmopolitan background have for years made him a popular candidate for the world’s top diplomatic post. But unlike Bill Clinton or Tony Blair, he has a reasonable chance of getting a nod from the Security Council. His experience and credentials alone make him a viable candidate.

His background and nationality are likely to be looked on favorably by the Asian group and more broadly from Southern governments. His awareness of having to include Southern interests in the UN’s work may help may help win support for necessary management reforms, which would in turn make wealthier governments happier over the organization’s fiscal management.

Beijing and Washington’s interests are important for any candidate, but have a particularly interesting twist for Tharoor. Both governments were no doubt consulted regarding Tharoor’s nomination, as would have been London, Paris, Moscow and other important nations, and apparently did not react negatively. Pranay Gupte, an Indian-American journalist who covered the UN for many years, noted that “Countries don’t make nominations to be embarrassed… That India made a nomination, says a lot.”  

China and India have long competed for leadership within the region and the larger developing world, but China has recently committed to forming more strategic and cooperative ties with India. Plus China has all but stated it is not happy with Tharoor’s competitors, but will not let a non-Asian assume the post.

The United States’ pursuit of a nuclear exchange program with India could translate into support for the country’s nominee, but no doubt some in the administration would have preferred an outsider. U.S. Ambassador John Bolton’s hope of cleaning house is not likely to come to fruition should Tharoor get the nod. Added to this is the general U.S. position that the UNSG is to be more “secretary” than “general” and not presume an air of independence in the job.

Japan – also on the Security Council – may favor Tharoor over his Asian colleagues both due to his support for reform and its shared desire with India for a permanent seat at the Security Council table.

Two factors may give pause to Tharoor’s candidacy however.

India is a big country, and others have already pointed out that big countries – particularly those with nuclear weapons – don’t field candidates for UNSG. Pakistan has already suggested it might nominate its own candidate, simply as a response to the Indian nomination. India is also an increasingly important leader on global issues, which may worry others, despite the UNSG’s nominal independence from national politics. Fortunately, Tharoor’s non-involvement in Indian politics may mitigate this factor.

However, his own popularity both as an author and an international civil servant may concern some governments, such as the U.S., which would prefer the UNSG to rely on their beneficence rather than possess a popular following.

(Fun fact: Tharoor’s most recent novel, Bookless in Baghdad, rose from #386,452 to #59,612 on Amazon.com in the last 24 hours.) 

All together, however, Tharoor knows what an impossible job he could be getting himself into. And despite this, he still deserves the strongest consideration by the world’s governments.

Update: In addition to India’s campaign for a permanent Security Council seat, it has also pushed for the Security Council to submit three UNSG nominees for consideration by the General Assembly. Yesterday, however, Tharoor himself noted that the proposal for multiple nominees appears to have lost steam. No surprise, now that India has its favorite son up for the office, but still a development for which Tharoor himself is probably relieved.

The Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) represents the largest bloc in the international community – 114 out of 191 UN member states. So it’s no surprise that both Jayantha Dhanapala and Surakiart Sathirathai are pursuing an endorsement by the group. (Ban Ki Moon cannot be endorsed, as the NAM’s rules require it to endorse only nationals from its member governments – and South Korea is far from “non-aligned.”)

By some accounts, Dhanapala reportedly “wooed” the member governments during their recent two-day ministerial summit in Putrajaya, Malaysia, playing up his credentials as both an “insider” and an “outsider.”

“I have seen the UN from the outside, and from within. That combination of being an outsider and an insider, equips me with the capability of implementing the reform more successfully,” he said. “One may step on landmines and find that reforms may backfire unless they understand the UN is a complex inter-governmental body with diverse cultures and diverse ethnic groups. You have to proceed with firmness but also tact.”

In response to criticisms, he has suggested that the renewed strife in Sri Lanka, which as Secretary General of the Peace Process Secretariat he was tasked with resolving, as giving him a unique expertise to bring to the office.

“[He] thinks that the domestic conflict would give him an edge to help handle conflicts, especially terrorism, a raging hot debate now. “There are many countries which have conflicts affecting them. We have Northern Ireland that is unresolved, we have the Arab-Israeli conflict, which is unresolved, and in Spain we have Basques (separatist) problems. “That does not disqualify a diplomat from that country from assuming responsibility in international organizations because the experience in dealing with terrorism in your own country gives you the necessary lessons which you can learn from and use for the future in conflict resolutions,” he said.

As to who’s supporting him at this point, he’s not keeping count, he says.

“We’re not keeping a scorecard of who’s for us and who is against us,” he said. “International diplomacy doesn’t operate in that crude manner, we pay the highest respect to governments whom we canvass, we place our credentials and allow them the courtesy of taking decisions at their own time, without pressing to let us know what their views are.”

Surakiart’s colleague, Foreign Minister Kantathi Suphamongkhon, who was also in Putrajaya, was a bit more confident, suggesting several NAM governments “have shown a positive attitude towards supporting” Surakiart.

“…he asked all 114 NAM member countries to consider Surakiart as a candidate for the role of UN post. He said the members had agreed in principle and issued a statement saying that that the next UN secretary-general should come from Asia.”

No surprise there. NAM members are mostly African, Asian and Latin American countries, regions which have already endorsed an Asian national for the post, even discounting the handful of “aligned” governments in those regions.  

Surakiart’s boss, Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, may have another chance to lobby for his candidate, having been invited to the bloc’s September meeting in Cuba.

Haya Rashed Al Khalifa, was chosen as President for the 61st session of the UN General Assembly last week. She will be the first Arab and Muslim woman to chair the United Nations General Assembly, and will be presiding over the selection of the next UNSG. Her election however may have a more direct, and thus far unmentioned, impact on the nominees for the post. 

Welcoming the election, Secretary-General Kofi Annan said he was “particularly pleased” that a woman would occupy the post. “I met her yesterday and I found her quite impressive,” he told reporters. “All the Member States are determined to work with her and to support her, and I think she’s going to bring a new dimension to the work here.”

While her election to the top post in the General Assembly reaffirms the ability of women to hold leadership positions the world body, it almost certainly robs the political will from the effort to nominate a female for the top post in the Secretariat. 

Secondly, her election may also knock one of the male candidates out of the running for UNSG. Jordan’s Prince Zeid has been a dark horse for months, and is believed to be supported by both Beijing and Washington. Though there have been years when the heads of the two highest bodies came from the same regional group, Haya’s and Zeid’s high level of similarity (moderate, Muslim and Arab) makes me doubt this would be one of those times. 

At a minimum, the development merits discussion.  

From the beginning, the number one government to watch in terms of the next UNSG selection has been China. Its growth as a regional power, as well as on the global stage has coincided nicely with what is considered Asia’s “turn” at the helm of the UN. As I and others have stated on previous occasions, the nominee will be that diplomat (by any definition) who can earn the support of both Beijing and Washington.

But China’s role in the selection process won’t be a cakewalk. For precisely the same reasons that it’s role is so important, the difficulties it faces will be challenging.

Yun Tang, with the World Affairs Council in Washington, DC, points out three specific factors associated with the UNSG selection that could complicate China’s global and regional leadership.

First, consolidating Asian countries on the issue. Presumably, Beijing has to break a lot of diplomatic impasses in mediating for a common Asian candidate, given the political complication of the vast continent. Nevertheless, if a consensus could not be reached, Asia’s chance might be in danger. Furthermore, if China fails to help deliver an Asian to the post, its influence in Asia will unquestionably suffer a setback.

Second, dealing with the US. To a certain extent, the selection of the next UN secretary-general is a test for China-US relations, putting on trial their mutual trust and willingness to cooperate in world affairs. Though some tensions remain, China-US relations are presently in a stable condition. In the next few months, if there is no serious confrontation between China and the US on Iran and on the upcoming UN budgetary dispute, it should not be very difficult for the two countries to find common ground regarding the nomination for secretary-general.

Third, addressing the concerns of other UN members. Canadian Ambassador Allan Rock wrote in mid- February to all UN members, proposing more transparency and broader member-state involvement in choosing Annan’s successor. Recently, some members also called for a greater role of the General Assembly in the recruitment, suggesting that the Security Council forward more than one candidate for approval. With all these developments as background, people will watch carefully to see whether Beijing can contribute to make the selection as open and fair as possible while vigorously pushing for a UN chief from Asia.

For those involved in Chinese or Asian affairs studies, this will be very important process to watch, not only from the global perspective, but also in terms of China’s bilateral affairs in the region.

Suzanne Nossel is a Non-Resident Fellow at the Security and Peace Initiative and founder of the Democracy Arsenal blog. She served as Deputy to the Ambassador for UN Management and Reform at the US Mission to the United Nations from 1999 – 2001 under Ambassador Richard C. Holbrooke. Ms. Nossel graciously allowed UNSG.org to share with our readers her recent post on the UNSG selection from Democracy Arsenal. Rather than excerpt or comment on it, we felt its concise, inclusive and insightful suggestions merited offering it in its entirety. We look forward to your comments and reactions.

The labyrinthine and secretive process of selecting a replacement for UN Secretary General (SYG) Kofi Annan, whose second term ends in December, is now getting underway.  This site does a marvelous job of tracking the progress and prognostications.  Given the shape the UN’s in, its no exaggeration to say that the choice will have a major impact on the future role and effectiveness of the world body.   Here’s what anyone who cares about the UN ought to be looking for: 

1.  A Strong Manager – Some say the next SYG ought to be more of a politician than a manager, since the key underlings run things day to day.  But management skills are always critical for a top job, no matter how much is delegated.  The UN risks desuetude if its sprawling bureaucracy lapses into even one more serious scandal.  The SYG needs to surround himself with the right people, and his chief lieutenants must believe that the boss is watching, that he knows incompetence, laziness, and dishonesty when he sees it, and that he won’t tolerate it for even a minute.  The Admistration is right on this one, though may be focused on management skills to the exclusion of other vital qualities.

2.  A Charismatic Leader – The Bush Administration may well prefer a SYG who is not a leader in his own right, assuming that such a person will be easier to control.  But the divisions in both the UN’s General Assembly and the UN Security Council mean that only someone with charm, persuasive powers, and forcefulness will be able to make headway.  The organization’s tendency toward lowest-common-denominator indecision and passivity is what has made it so ineffectual on Darfur and, to date, Iran.  If the SYG doesn’t have the personality to help cut through it, no one will.

3.  An Asian – The UN has an informal agreed regional rotation system which dictates that this is Asia’s “turn” to have a SYG.  There’s been talk about alternative E. European candidates, and the idea that given the array of qualities on lists like this one, there whould be no limits on finding the right person for the job.  But everyone agrees that the two key parties who must acquiesce before white smoke billows from UN HQ are the U.S. and the Chinese.  The Chinese will demand an Asian, and they’ll get an Asian.  It’s almost certain that this will mean the next SYG is a man, which is why I use the male pronoun in this list.

4.  A Visionary of Sorts – While a highly competent functionary can effectively lead an organization like the World Food Programme or UNHCR that has a well-defined mission, leading the UN involves setting a global agenda.  The SYG needs to articulate his own views for how to prioritize among the UN’s dizzying array of programs, speaking from conviction when he argues for something.  At least rhetorically, Kofi Annan did well on this score, showing leadership in promoting a Responsibility to Protect and the promotion of democracy. 

5.  Someone who Enjoys the Respect of the Developing World – The UN is dominated by delegations from the developing world who are eternally suspicious that the wealthier countries who fund the UN and dominate the Security Council will shortchange their priorities.  They will make life miserable for a SYG they don’t trust, and can and will paralyze the UN in the process.  This sets a high bar for candidates from Japan or Korea who are not seen as “of” the developing world.

6.  Someone who likes the United States – Boutros-Ghali is an example of a SYG who, on balance, was probably more contemptuous than admiring of the U.S.  The feeling was mutual, and Washington ultimately ran him out of office.  The SYG works more closely with the U.S. than any other UN Member State, and needs relationships with both Administration officials as well as the (invariably Republican) Members of Congress who obsess over UN funding issues.  Finding someone who has been largely uninfluenced by the rising tide of anti-US sentiment in recent years may be tough, but its critical.  

7.  Someone Unafraid to Take Risks – A risk-averse SYG will do nothing more than ratify the UN’s natural penchant for inaction.  The UN needs someone who is willing to push on big governments, who doesn’t take no for an answer, who is willing to propose things to break through impasse, and who doesn’t suffer from a compulsive need to be liked.

8.  Someone who likes Media Attention, but Not Too Much – Part of the task of the next SYG is rebuilding the organization’s global stature.  This will require being visible and making the UN visible for the good it does.  A dour SYG, or one who can’t make himself easily understood by the global media, will set the UN back.  Annan’s lilting voice, attractive wife, and affinity for the Manhattan social scene helped give the UN a bit of panache that made the organization seem slightly less depressing than it otherwise would have in its darkest hours.  But the UN membership will strike back against a SYG who they think is trying to steal too much limelight for accomplishments they see as their own.

9.  Someone Patient but Not Too Patient – Patience is essential to offset angina as the UN goes about its deadly, daily business of approving documents, acting on minute budget requests, and paying homage to two-bit holidays and marginal causes.   But impatience is essential in response to governments that delay and obfuscate, and functionaries who won’t or can’t get the job done.

10.  Someone with Moral Authority – It’s not essential, but it would be nice to have a SYG with something in his background that could enable him to make a passionate moral call to countries that might help overcome the pettiness, risk-aversion, and indifference that leads to situations like the inaction in Darfur.  A survivor of some sort of devastation or human rights abuse might be able to mount a more persuasive call than someone who has spent his career moving paper.

Last January, Harper’s Magazine took a serious look at Bill Clinton as a candidate for UNSG. This morning, the editorial board of the Los Angeles Times added an amusing twist to the possibility that poses a challenge to domestic politics… and maybe to domestic bliss too! 

“The best thing Hillary Rodham Clinton could do for humanity is not run for president. Nothing against her personally, mind you; it’s just that her aspirations could get in the way of her husband’s worthier ones.”

The editors note Bill’s currency among Africans, Europeans and Arabs as well as with many Americans. They suggest also that Bill “could bridge the growing divide between Washington and much of the world” and help his fellow citizens understand the UN’s mission. “Americans are largely disengaged with the [United Nations]’s actions,” they note. “Bill Clinton at the helm would change that overnight.”

But this won’t happen, say the editors, as long as Hillary continues to be a highly probable candidate for the U.S. presidency in 2008. Even if the practice of denying the office to P5 nationals were overlooked, having a Clinton both at Turtle Bay and in the White House may be too much for the rest of the world.

And the Times’ editors know which they’d prefer.

“If the Security Council members were truly inspired to pick the right man for the job, and if Hillary Clinton’s candidacy were the only obstacle standing between her husband and global leadership (granted, a big if), we’d like to think she’d do the right thing and put her presidential aspirations on hold. The world needs Bill more than the U.S. needs Hillary.”

And the rest of us thought the gives-and-takes in our marriages were challenging!

William J. Taylor, a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and adjunct professor at Georgetown, offers his pick for the next UNSG this morning in The Washington Times.

There appears to be a growing worldwide consensus the person should be Asian… Naturally, politics will play a heavy role, but serious attention should be given the personal qualifications of the individual chosen for this important position. He or she should be both a distinguished leader and a proven manager…

I am honored to know an Asian leader with such qualifications who has announced his candidacy. His name is Ban (pronounced Bahn) Ki-moon who, at age 62, is the Republic of Korea’s foreign affairs and trade minister.

Taylor shares definitions of leadership which he feels Ban embodies in his unassuming loyalty to family, friends and colleagues. All in all, however, his praise is a bit heady and sounds more like a recommendation letter for a bright student than an objective political endorsement for the next UNSG.

“This man has a deserved reputation for depth of character, high personal values and solid professional competence accompanied by sincere consideration for the welfare of others. He leads by personal example and by the power of his ideas supported by logic, reason and evidence.”

His commentary is a useful contribution to the conversation, but the choice of wording and pedantic tone may have the unfortunate effect of undermining the otherwise worthy intent.

In its June 2006 overview, Security Council Report is reporting that the more substantive discussions on the next UNSG has been put back to July. It is also noting that France, which will hold the Security Council Presidency in July, is reviewing past methods and guidelines on the selection and will present a working paper offering guidelines for this year’s decision, still expected to take place in late September or early October.