The Financial Times’s Mark Turner, an early friend of this blog, reports on today’s participation of three SG contenders in the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. As reported here earlier, rumored SG candidates Ban Ki-Moon (South Korea), Vaira Vike-Freiberga (Latvia) and Jayantha Dhanapala (Sri Lanka) will participate in a panel discussion on the future of the UN with current SG Kofi Annan. Neither Surakiart Sathirathai (Thailand) nor Aleksander Kwasniewski (Poland), other front runners, will appear.

The article provides additional insight for the three candidates (only Dhanapala is officially in the race) and their priorities for the UN if selected:

Mr Ban said: “The secretariat has . . . been discredited by criticisms of inefficiency and corruption. The new secretary-general must reform the culture of the organisation, increase accountability and toughen ethics. The SG . . . must be given the flexibility to manage. There must be a sense of accountability among the staff of the secretariat.”

Ms Vike-Freiberga said: “The first challenge is to restore confidence in the organisation, as the world body we look to as an initiator of ideas, of movements to solve the world’s problems.” But “we get the feeling that the current reforms are being received with reservations in some countries, who see it as an imposition by richer more developed nations.”

Mr Dhanapala said: “I believe the global system must find a way not only to accommodate a rising China but a rising India, so we can have a harmonious accommodation of more economic powers which will be able to share responsibility.”

While the Davos meetings are attended – sorry, invitation only – by government and business elites, the public is invited to view the discussions via webcast today at 18:45 Davos time (12:45 New York time) or podcast afterwards.

U.S. Ambassador John Bolton reinterated yesterday that member goverments are responsible for ensuring the next SG brings to the table strong administative skills and the ability to “tighten supervision” over the Secretariat. The U.S. statement, that “oversight by the secretary-general should be strengthened,” followed findings of potential procurement fraud, possibly reaching into the tens of millions of dollars.

And the Ambassador did not miss the opportunity to frame the U.S. view in his uniquely, “Boltonesque” style:

“The U.N. charter clearly says that the U.N. Secretary General should be chief administrative officer,” Bolton said Monday. “We are original intent people in the Bush Administration and that’s what we’re looking for, a chief administrative officer. We need one. We need one very soon.”

The World Federalist Movement-Institute for Global Policy is also closely monitoring the SG selection process and inviting contributions toward what they hope will be “an agreed list of procedural requirements and candidate criteria” that can be endorsed by multiple NGOs and civil society groups. The broad goals of this effort include a more concrete timetable for nomination and selection, defined candidate criteria, a more transparent nomination process, and public interviews or hearings between the candidates and UN member states and appropriate stakeholder groups.

Those who wish to contribute to this discussion should contact Seher Khawaja, Program Manager.

I was just waiting for this to pop up…

Sportsbook.com is now taking wagers on the next SG!

According to their press release, “there is rampant speculation that Annan’s successor will be a political heavyweight with international clout. According to UN insiders, the list of names being floated in diplomatic circles includes current and former presidents, Nobel Prize winners and champions of human rights.”

This goes against history, of course, as most of the SGs to date have been dark horse candidates from small or middle powers. And other than Bill Clinton, I’m not sure their own odds really reflect this bold statement.

Just harmless fun, anyway, eh? Maybe and maybe not. Here’s a wealth of information from the AEI-Brookings Institution Joint Center on Regulatory Studies on the subject of “policy futures” – markets that allow speculators to buy and sell contracts based on their expectations regarding the outcome of an uncertain future event.

Ante up, anyone?

In this article in Korea Times, Philip Dorsey Iglauer focuses attention on the campaign for a female SG. Though not mentioning it by name, he refers to the symbolic campaign by Equality Now. Unlike that campaign, however, he takes a more strategic approach by identifying four qualified women leaders who also happen to come from Asia – thus meeting the regional qualification as well.

Ideally, selecting a qualified female candidate for the UN’s top position would demonstrate governments’ committment to gender equality. From a realpolitick point of view, choosing an Asian female would allow face-saving by any government that, sadly, may still need it.

As part of its educational mission, the Center for UN Reform Education (CURE) plans to interview a number of leading SG candidates over the coming year. This month, CURE research fellow Ayca Ariyoruk spoke with Jayantha Dhanapala from Sri Lanka. She posed a number of intriguing questions, not the least of which was simply, “Why do you want this job?”

Dhanapala, who chaired the remarkably successful 1995 NPT Review Conference, was the Under SG for Disarmament affairs before returning to Sri Lanka in 2003 to serve as the secretary general for the Sri Lankan peace process. Noting the dedication to the United Nations that prompted his candidacy, Dhanapala shared his thoughts on rogue states and nuclear weapons, the necessary equilibrium between the UN’s principle organs and the relationships that often challenge the UN’s chief adminstrator. In describing the post, he suggested that

“…the ability to be a leader while at the same time recognizing that you derive your mandate from the member states is an essential quality the next secretary general must have.”

As one of only two declared candidates for the top post, he commented that,

“We are deliberately refraining from running an aggressive high profile campaign because this is not analogous to running for office in one’s own country. It is something more sacrosanct, almost, and it has to be approached with a certain level of dignity.”

Update (Jan 25): Readers may be interested in reading this article describing Amb. Dhanapala’s role in the Iraqi weapons inspections effort by then Senior VP of the American Enterprise Institute, and current U.S. Ambassador to the UN, John Bolton.

One session of this month’s Davos conference will include a discussion of the UN’s continued relevance and its role in global affairs. The session, “A New Mindset for the UN,” will include at least two, and maybe four of the leading contenders for the UN top post – Ban, Dhanapala, Surakiart, and Vīķe-Freiberga. The program for participants unambiguously notes that one objective of the session, will be “…an open discussion with the current secretary general of the UN, and potential future secretaries general” on the near-term challenges and prospects for the UN.

Oh well…the public can at least view a webcast of the session at this link.

During his visit with SG Annan yesterday, South Korea’s Foreign Affairs Minister (and suggested SG candidate himself) Ban Ki-moon noted that South Korea is “seriously considering the idea of presenting a Korean national as a candidate to succeed Kofi Annan.” He declined to say whether he would be that candidate, though he is considered the most likely to be nominated. Should South Korea field a candidate though, it would further challenge Asia’s ability to reach consensus on a single contender. Perhaps suggestively, Ban noted last October that “There are already two very good candidates but, you know, when I was in New York last month I heard from many, many member countries that Asia needs to have a very good, credible candidate.”

In the Los Angeles Times, Maggie Farley discusses the United States’ (as well as the UK’s) dismissal of the inviolability of regional rotation process for selecting the next SG.

“This organization needs a strong manager, ” said Sichan Siv (U.S. representative to the U.N. Economic and Social Council) who has been helping to vet candidates. “Not a rock star, not a politician, not someone who spends a lot of time on the TV screen. We want someone who gets things done.

“We’ve said that we want the best-qualified person from whatever region of the world that person might come from,” U.S. Ambassador John R. Bolton said in a recent interview. “If it’s an Asian, that’s fine with us. If it’s not an Asian, that’s fine with us too.”

On this point, a China Daily editorial, aware that “[t]he assumption that the job will go to another region has opened up a huge field of possibilities,” appealed to Asian governments,

“…to reach a consensus on who will represent the region to compete for the post. The race should not turn into a game with countries trying to checkmate other nations’ nominees as much as to promote their own. This could lead to paralysis rather than consensus. Agreement can only be reached through negotiations and dialogue, which could be very tough.”

However, the decision by SG Annan to leave departing Deputy SG Louise Fréchette’s position vacant for the remainder of his term will likely increase the intra-regional competition. The Indian government, which had been weighing whether to name a candidate for the #2 spot rather than pursue the top post, is now more likely to field a candidate, possibily nominating UN spokesperson Shashi Tharoor. This would challenge the two declared Asian candidates, Jayanta Dhanapala of Sri Lanka and Surakiart Sathirathai of Thailand, as well as a field of potential others in the region.

This weekend, Bill Clinton jokingly remarked that a challenge from Tony Blair (video) for the post of UN Secretary General “would suit me” and suggested that Blair would make a good SG.

BBC Newsnight’s Jeremy Paxman: “Maybe he should run against you for Secretary General of the UN?”

Clinton: “Well, that would suit me. He would be a good one.”

The remark was made in a moment of good humor as Clinton was asked what he would advise Blair to do in retirement. Both hail from P5 member states, traditionally barred from seeking the position. Clinton, himself once rumored to be interested in the post, would have a better chance of securing the top post, given Blair’s support for the Iraq war. But would it not be an interesting race?

Update (Jan 25): In a USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup pollconducted this past weekend, 66% of Americans say Tony Blair “would be a good secretary-general of the United Nations when he no longer is leading Great Britain.” A similar number of Americans had favorable views of the British prime minister, contrasted with an average of only 34% of Brits since January 2003.